Tableau de bord, région métropolitaine de Montréal = Trend chart, Greater Montreal region, 1 septembre 2001, Anglais

[" ©HART G R EAT E I M POLITAN REGION QUARTERLY PUBLICATION OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE BOARD OF TRADE OF METROPOLITAN MONTREAL PRODUCED IN PARTNERSHIP WITH CANADA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT VOLUME 4, NO 1, SEPTEMBER 200 1 HIGHLIGHTS THE WINDS ARE STILL FAVOURABLE The main indicators are surprising given the current economic outlook: consumption is steady, real estate is doing marvellously well and employment is making surprising gains.Montreal is resisting the surrounding economic sluggishness, and it would take a nasty twist of fate to derail its economy.Just in terms of employment, Montreal has been steadily increasing the ranks of its employed since the beginning of the year.Better still, these gains are also extending to the manufacturing sector, which is largely dependent on the business conditions.The decreasing help wanted index portends a slowdown in employment in the coming months, but the situation will be nowhere near like the recessions of the past.OTHER REASONS TO CELEBRATE ¦\tMontreal airports are faring well ¦\tLife expectancy is up another notch ¦\tTourists still choose Montreal for their holiday destination LESS ROSY ¦\tEmergency room waits are getting longer ¦\tThe high-school graduation rate is down CED REPORT In the past few years, tourism in Montreal has benefited from several favourable situational factors.But the city must not rest on its laurels, because competition is fierce.Développement\tCanada Economic ¦\téconomique Canada Development Canada 2 South Belt Montreal MAP of THE METROPOLITAN AREA Montreal, Laval and North and South Belts 111 municipalities Population: 3.3 million 55% of Quebec\u2019s GDP Norm Ben Corporate tax: 75% of Quebec\u2019s total contribution 1.7 million jobs THE FOLLOWING STATISTICS cover the census metropolitan area (CMA).Where unavailable, the MUC territory or the City of Montreal were included.These are the latest statistics available at the time of printing Data collected with the help of ROYAL BANK FINANCIAL GROUP' Published and distributed free of charge by Leadership lâcHituSd.the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal\u2019s monthly journal THE TREND CHART for Greater Montreal is open to the participation of any organization dedicated to the progress of the metropolitan region.Reproduction of this document, in whole or in part, is authorized with credit to the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal.Publication director: Jean-Pierre Langlois, economist Telephone: (514) 871-4000, ext.4070 Fax: (514) 871-1255 E-mail: jplangiois@ccmm.qc.ca Available on the Board of Trade\u2019s Web site at: www.btmm.qc.ca/presse/tdb 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS \u2022 Employment in the public sector (employment)\t4 4.\tMACROECONOMICS\t4 Labour \u2022\tJob creation\t4 \u2022\tUnemployment rate\t5 \u2022\tHelp wanted index\t5 \u2022\tEmployment forecast\t6 \u2022\tWork stoppages\t6 Price \u2022\tConsumer price index\t7 5.\tSECTORIAL ECONOMY\t8 Transportation \u2022\tAir traffic\t8 Tourism \u2022\tHotel occupancy rate in greater Montreal 9 Real estate \u2022 Housing starts\t9 \u2022 Resale market\t10 \u2022 Office vacancy rates\t10 Retail market\t \u2022 Sales\t11 Financial sector\t \u2022 Small-cap stocks\t11 \u2022 Montreal Stock Exchange\t12 6.\tSPECIFIC ECONOMIC SECTORS 13 Computerization \u2022\tInternet use\t13 7.\tQUALITY OF LIFE\t14 Environnment \u2022\tAir quality\t14 Education \u2022 Graduation rate 14 Public security \u2022 Crime rate\t15 Public health\t \u2022 ER waits\t15 \u2022 Life expectancy at birth\t16 \u2022 Infant mortality rate\t16 8.\tCANADA ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT\t17 \u2022 Tourism growth in Montreal\t17 Economic Development M Canada Economic Développement Development économique Canada Canada Prospering in Harmony Community Strength By uniting strengths Canada Economic of Quebec comm We support their the community moves forward.Development promotes the efforts niinities dedicated to going farther, business projects and their partnerships.Our goahTo support community strength.Chambre de commerce du Montréal métropolitain Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal 5 Place Ville Marie, plaza level, suite 12500, Montreal, Québec H3B 4Y2 Telephone: (514) 871-4000 Fax: (514) 871-1255 E-mail: info@ccmm.qc.ca 4 MAIN FEATURES JOBS GROW IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR Don\u2019t adjust your sets: jobs in the public sector have been growing continuously since early 1999 after some lean years that began in 1992-1993.In the first quarter of this year, the public sector boasted as many civil servants as in Q1 1996.Ontario and British Colombia lead the pack this year with 19,600 and 6,600 jobs respectively.Conversely, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland are still tightening their belts, trimming 2,100 and 800 jobs respectively.Quebec has been far more restrained in terms of increases, adding only 450 jobs.While we do not have such recent data for metropolitan areas, it is now clear that they are following the same trend.For the federal government, the reductions that began in 1992-1993 are now over.And a sustained turnaround has been taking place in Ottawa-Hull since 1997.However, in Montreal, the upturn is very recent and quite modest.Without a doubt the greatest increase is taking place at the federal level.The number of jobs in provincial and territorial administration has remained practically unchanged.In Quebec, the increases in general administration have been offset by a reduction in the number of post-secondary teachers.Federal jobs in CMAs Source: Statistics Canada 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Montreal Toronto Calgary Vancouver 30,000 MACROECONOMICS LABOUR EMPLOYMENT: MONTREAL BUCKS THE TREND Although Montreal has lost 8,000 jobs since its peak in May, it has still gained 45,000 jobs since the end of last year\u2014a miracle during these times.This gain is all the more surprising given that Canada as a whole only created 15,000 jobs and Quebec, 11,000.Even if Montreal created twice as many positions in the services sector than in the goods sector during this period, it is comforting to note that the manufacturing sub-sector was key in giving momentum to an area that had lost steam last year.This is probably because the restructuring of traditional industries is, at long last, bearing fruit.And at a time when layoffs are making headlines, consumers have not given up and Montreal businesses have continued hiring since the beginning of the year.In contrast, jobs are being lost in the health care, teaching and corporate management sectors.After a strong start, professional services are cutting staff, as is the rest of the country in this field.As for Metropolitan Montreal, the suburbs are faring better than Montreal island, where gains have been marking time for the past few months.Job creation annual variation Seasonally adjusted data Jul.01 Jul.99 Jul.00 Jul.98 Jul.96 Jul.97 Montreal Toronto Vancouver Source: Statistics Canada While Toronto managed to create 54,000 jobs since late last year, Vancouver (+7,000 jobs) and Calgary (+15,000) have enjoyed more modest gains.And although Alberta may be benefiting from the oil and gas boom, British Columbia is feeling the pinch of the U.S.slowdown.(-17, 000). 5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TAKES A NOSE DIVE IN MONTREAL One would think we were in the midst of an economic boom.The unemployment rate in Montreal hit 7.1% in July\u2014an unprecedented drop in just one month.The situation was almost as rosy as in early 2000 when Montreal was creating jobs at a frenetic pace.Today, however, things have changed, even if the city is doing well in terms of job creation.As usual, the explanation lies in the participation rate, i.e.the percentage of the active population that can and wants to work, which dropped suddenly in July in tandem with the unemployment rate.After continuously increasing since the beginning of the year, employment has been slipping, although very slowly, for the past two months.Consequently, the unemployment rate in Montreal is nothing to crow about.And the same holds true for Quebec as a whole, where the joblessness rate slipped to 8.2% in July, after hitting 9% in May.As in Montreal, the participation rate is behind the drop.Employment in Quebec began its decline last year and has not taken a breather since.The decreasing participation rate is in keeping with the firmly entrenched economic slowdown in North America.In Toronto, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 6.4% following an increase in the participation rate.The same was true in Cal- Unemployment rate Seasonally adjusted data Source: Statistics Canada Montreal Toronto Calgary Vancouver Jul.98 Jul.99 Jul.00 Jul.01 gary, which nonetheless managed to keep its unemployment rate at 4.2%, just under the American average of 4.5%.Vancouver succeeded to drop its unemployment rate to 5.5%, following a slight decrease in the province\u2019s participation rate.JOB OFFERS SLIDE It\u2019s a fact: there are fewer and fewer job offers in the country\u2019s newspapers these days.The help wanted indexes, which except for Calgary\u2019s, are all in a freefall, confirm this situation.Of all the provinces, only Prince Edward Island and New Brunswick posted gains in July.After peaking at the end of last year\u2019s third quarter, the indexes have been steadily spiralling downward: Vancouver is down 19.5%, followed by Montreal with a 16.6% drop and Toronto with a 14% loss.During this time, the Calgary index increased 2.3% thanks to the Alberta economy, which continues to be driven by the oil and gas boom.From June to July, the most significant losses were recorded in Quebec and Ontario, 5.2% and 4.6% respectively.This is certainly not surprising given that the central provinces are the ones bearing the brunt of cuts in the manufacturing sector, exacerbated by a meltdown in the high-tech sector.1996 = 100 Help wanted index Smoothed, seasonally adjusted data Source: Statistics Canada Montreal I Toronto I Calgary Vancouver l 6 EMPLOYMENT: RECOVERY NEXT YEAR This year will not be particularly good in terms of employment: after growing 4% to 5% last year, employment will barely inch upward this year.This is the opinion of the Conference Board of Canada, which has allowed us to peak at its crystal ball.What could be surprising, however, is not the fact there will be a drop\u2014it\u2019s to be expected\u2014but that it will be relatively mild: the increase will be between 1.5% and 2.5%, an almost annual average during prosperous times.What is surprising is the sizeable increases recorded in 2000 by Calgary, Toronto and even Vancouver, compared with Montreal\u2019s 2%.Readers may remember our report on Montreal\u2019s lacklustre performance last year.If the soothsayers are right, employment will not fall apart like it did in the early \u201890s, when Montreal endured four years of continuous decline right on the heels of a recession that sent seismic shock waves through the Montreal economy.If the Conference Board is right, employment in Toronto will rebound next year, growing more rapidly than in Montreal.Not to be outdone, Vancouver, which is showing signs of robustness this year, will see its jobs grow a notch above Montreal\u2019s.Employment growth forecast % Calgary iiiiiiiim\tMontreal Vancouver mÊÊam\tToronto Source: Conference Board of Canada STRIKES AND LOCKOUTS RETURN TO NORMAL After Vancouver stepped out of the box in terms of work stoppages last year, it looks like things are pretty much back to normal this year: Ontario is back at the top of the list in terms of strikes and person-days affected, followed closely by Quebec, and British Columbia trailing far behind.Montreal, however, is ahead of Toronto, and of course, Vancouver.A look at the chart below shows that the upward trend of the past few years seems to be fizzling since the middle of last year.Is this yet another symptom of the economic slowdown that hit North America last year?Perhaps workers become less demanding when the economy takes a turn for the worse.While Quebec had its fair share of work stoppages in the first quarter of the year, few have been major.Indeed, only two companies made headlines in this regard: the mining company Québec-Cartier of Port-Cartier, and Cameo in Montreal.In Ontario, the following companies led the way in work stoppages: Falconbridge of Sudbury, E.B.Eddy Forest Products (Dom-tar) of Naim, Co-Steel Lasco of Whitby and McMaster University, while in British Columbia, Superior Poultry of Coquitlam and Premium Brands (Fletcher\u2019s Fine Food) of Vancouver stand out.Work stoppages All types of entreprises 450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50,000 0 1994\t1995 1997\t1998 1999\t2000\t2001 (Jan.-Mar.K Source: Human Ressources\tMontreal\tVancouver Development Canada\tToronto Note: *annualized data 7 PRICE INFLATION DROPS, ESPECIALLY IN MONTREAL For the first time since last summer, the monthly consumer price index dropped in June and it\u2019s been several years since it has dropped by 0.6% in Montreal.It also appears that except for Vancouver, most Canadian cities are adopting this downward trend.The reason is simple: after several months of significant increases in inflation in North America, the economic slowdown has finally caught up with price increases.Production and inflation rarely change at the same pace, especially during an economic downturn: while.Indeed, this is what happened in 2001.Now the time seems In Canada, the drop in the annual June variation was the most volatile elements as energy (whose price has finally dropped) and food, the increase in the index is even more reasonable\u20142% annually instead of 3.3%.Moreover, in light of the worldwide decline in production capacity, we are poised for a drop in inflation in the coming months.right for inflation to slow even as an economic turnaround is imminent.although output declines, prices may continue to rise for a short 4 0 H June 01 June 98 June 99 June 97 June 00 pronounced in 14 months.And if we eliminate from the CPI such Source: Statistics Canada Toronto Vancouver Montreal ¦¦ 8 SECTORIAL ECONOMY TRANSPORTATION A GOOD MID-YEAR REPORT CARD FOR MONTREAL AIRPORTS Passenger traffic in Montreal airports was up nearly 5% at the end of June over the year-earlier period, comparing favourably with the 3.5% increase recorded for the entire year of 2000.With a 5% increase, Dorval is faring better than Mirabel (4.5%), a relatively recent phenomenon.This may be because the relative strength of the Canadian dollar is discouraging foreign tourists from visiting la Belle Province, and since it specializes in charter flights and benefits from the flow of summer tourists, Mirabel is feeling the pinch.These figures\u2014particularly Dorval\u2019s\u2014are almost surprising given the current economic situation.Figures published by the Air Transport Association of Canada appear to confirm that Montreal is faring well compared to the other major Canadian airports: its growth rates are outpacing Toronto\u2019s and Vancouver\u2019s, even if in terms of numbers of passengers, Montreal does not make the grade.Total number of passengers at Dorval %\tAnnual growth rate Source: Aéroports de Montréal Note: June 2001 figures are not final Total number of passengers at Mirabel %\tAnnual growth rate 60 40 -80 |P 1996\t1997\t1998\t1999\t2000\t2001 Source: Aéroports de Montréal Note: June 2001 figures are not final 9 TOURISM TOURISM: START OF A DOWNTURN It had to happen.The occupancy rates in Greater Montreal hotels are down: 4% in July over the year-earlier period and a drop of just under 1 % for the first seven months of the year against the corresponding period in 2000.Last summer, Montreal enjoyed its best tourism season since Expo \u201967, making it difficult to stand up to such a comparison for long.In fact, the current downturn is typical of an economic slowdown.Companies on the front lines have already begun trimming travel expenses with the result that business travel is down throughout North America.And while leisure tourism is staying the course, it too is showing signs of weakness.For example, due to the weak euro, fewer Europeans are travelling to America.Indeed, fewer French tourists are visiting Quebec this year.And in the United States, hotel occupancy rates continue to drop as tourists shy away from the strong US greenback.Greater Montreal hotel occupancy rates %\tSeasonally adjusted* Source: Hotel Association of Greater Montreal * Seasonally adjusted by the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal Moving 6-month average The future of the global economy, which remains uncertain, will determine the fate of the tourism industry over the next few months.REAL ESTATE HOUSING STARTS: CAUSE FOR OPTIMISM If the CMHC is correct, housing starts will continue to increase this year despite the current economic situation.Whether in Montreal, Quebec or across Canada, the forecasts are dizzying: this year will be the best in a decade.As such, 13,300 units will be built in Montreal, 26,400 in Quebec and 158,000 in Canada.And next year\u2019s forecast is hardly any different.There are a number of contributing factors to this pace.Mortgage rates are exceptionally low, personal disposable income is up, immigration is increasing and real estate developers are reeling in the profits, and all these factors combined are sustaining the market in varying degrees.This is especially true in Quebec, where an all-time low housing inventory is whetting builders\u2019 appetites.However, this is not necessarily the situation in the rental market, which is slow in adjusting to the very low vacancy rates.This is the case in Montreal, Quebec City and Hull, where vacancy rates have fallen below 2%.Developers in this sector find it more difficult to turn a profit due to the rent control imposed by the Régie du logement du Québec.Elsewhere in the country, the picture is just as rosy: Ontario and Alberta will continue to ride the waves of the past few years, while British Columbia will see its prices stabilize and even drop.Housing starts Units Seasonally adjusted, annualized data AVSfSfSSSSSfSS/S/?//?/ Source: CMHC Montreal Toronto Vancouver 10 RESALES REACH RECORD HIGHS The year 2001 should be a banner year for resales in Montreal: with 31,000 transactions, Montreal is now head and shoulders above Vancouver, when just four years ago the situation was quite the opposite.Still, Montreal has a long way to go to overtake Toronto, where resales should reach 62,000 units this year.The resale market and the housing market in general are benefiting from strong positive factors this year: mortgage rates are exceptionally low, immigration is up and income taxes are down.And even if job growth is not always rosy, incomes are substantial enough to sustain demand.Some markets, such as Toronto and Vancouver, are capitalizing on pent-up demand that could no longer be contained.Vancouver, where good news has been a rarity these past few years, is surprisingly robust: sales should increase 18% in 2001.Except in British Columbia, prices should generally go up across the board, and for 2001-2002 the increases will surpass the inflation rate in Quebec, Ontario and Alberta.Resale market Annual variation rate +4.9 -1.6 75.000 65.000 55.000 45.000 35.000 25.000 15.000 5,000 -5,000 Montreal\tToronto Vancouver Calgary Source and forecasts* : CMHC 2000 \u2014\u2014» 2001* = 2002* =» COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE RESISTS ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN While signs of the slowdown have begun to punctuate the sector, commercial and industrial real estate in Canada is refusing to get a fit of the blues.Montreal in particular, is far from throwing in the towel.In Q2 2001, the vacancy rate in the industrial sector\u2014the second in the country\u2014dropped another notch: at 4%, it is the lowest since the beginning of the current economic cycle.Although the office vacancy rate inched upwards to 10.5%, this is due to abundant availability in the Montreal market.In fact, the occupancy rate has remained stable thanks to the success of information technologies, financial services and consumer services.Throughout the country, the occupancy rate increased for the eighth consecutive quarter, notwithstanding the North American economic slowdown.At the same time, developers have continued building, thereby increasing available space.Despite a slight increase, from 3.9% to 4%, in the vacancy rate in the Canada\u2019s industrial sector over the first two quarters, the sector remains robust.Toronto gets the prize for contributing 75% of the supply growth since the beginning of the year.However, it is highly unlikely this market will be able to indefinitely resist the downward pressure exercised by the ambient economy.%\tVacancy rate: industrial space Vancouver mi Canada ¦¦¦ 2T973T974T972T98 3T984T98 1T99 2T99 3T991T00 2T00 3TO04T00 1T01 2T01 Source: Royal LePage Montreal Toronto 11 RETAIL MARKET CONSUMPTION\u2014A GROWTH ENGINE News of its arrival having been greatly exaggerated, the recession has yet to make an appearance, at least for the time being.And this is largely thanks to consumers, who sustain economic growth in North America.The latest data on retail sales confirm this.In Canada, the combined and annualized sales volume for April and May was up 3% over the first quarter.Even if this result is down from the first quarter growth (5.2%), everything indicates that consumers have yet to throw in the towel.While the connection between wholesale and retail is at times tenuous, wholesale sales have picked up steam since the beginning of the year after faltering towards the end of 2000.While sales in Quebec made a strong comeback between March and April, they once again nose-dived in May, unlike the situation in the rest of Canada.But at an annualized rate of +7.7%, sales remain surprisingly robust, more so than in Ontario and in the rest of Canada.The strength of employment will determine whether consumers maintain their positive outlook in the coming months.Some economic prognosticators are not so sure, as pessimism is quickly gaining ground among many other North American industries, especially south of the border.Retail sales Seasonally adjusted data May 97 May 98 May 99 May 00 May 01 Montreal\tg g Source: Statistics Canada * Seasonally adjusted by the Board of trade of metropolitan Montreal FINANCIAL SECTOR STOCK MARKET: SMALL CAPS HAVE THE WIND IN THEIR SAILS It has become almost routine: small-cap stock market indices fare better than their large-cap counterparts.And this has been true for at least a year.At the end of July 2001, the TSE 300 and S&P500 posted higher one-year losses than the small-cap indices.Better yet, the FBN Quebec index posted a slight gain.This comes as no surprise: when interest rates are low, small caps have no trouble outperforming large companies.As Martin Goulet of Financière Banque Nationale states, history seems to be repeating itself since the Federal Reserve began dropping interest rates: \u201cWe could well relive the same scenario as the one between 1991 to 1994, when rates dropped and small caps out-performed large caps overall.\u201d Between January and the end of July, ADS, Entreprises Hartco and Labopharm have all stood out in terms of performance, posting return rates approaching 200%.In contrast, Saco Smartvision, NHC Communications and Nurun lost between -63 % and -81 % of their value.If interest rates continue to drop in the next few months, Quebec small caps will be on cloud nine.Later, it will be the turn of the large caps to celebrate.FBN Quebec small-cap Index vs S&P 500 and TSE 300 ^ * J 4 f f 4*J,4 ** 4 4 4cf W / 4 4 4 «f 4 4 4 4 444 / 44 *v Source: Financière Banque Nationale FBN Quebec S&P 500 TSE 300 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 12 BOURSE DE MONTREAL: A SLOWDOWN IN THE OFFING?There appears to be a subtle indication that the annualized growth rate of Bourse de Montreal's options market is poised to take a bit of a breather after posting spectacular increases in the preceding quarters.After expanding 12.8% in the first six months of this year, options are taking a break: on the one hand, stock markets are licking their wounds and, on the other, the Montreal trading floor cannot sustain last year\u2019s pace much longer.Despite all that, with a volume of 5.4 million contracts, Bourse de Montréal has become the Canadian derivatives exchange.After peaking in 1998, the volume of three-month Canadian bankers\u2019 acceptance futures (BAX) is down slightly.The annualized volume for the first six months of the year was down over last year, although only slightly.In fact, the BAX is a barometer for shortterm Canadian interest rates.As for the 10-year government of Canada bond futures (CGB), they\u2019ve recovered since last year.While designated as Canada\u2019s derivatives exchange, Bourse de Montréal is also the primary financial futures trading centre in Canada, including BAX and CGB.After large-cap trading was transferred to Toronto, Montreal kept up its trading of small stocks.Today, 121 such stocks out of a total 117 companies are traded in Montreal.Bourse de Montréal options market growth 1995 - 2001* +12.8% +230% +35.2% +4.7% -2.5% 1995 +30.9% 1996\t1997\t1998\t1999\t2000\t2001(1) Source: Bourse de Montréal * Excluding long-term options (1) First annualized six months 13 SPECIFIC ECONOMIC SECTORS COMPUTERIZATION INTERNET GROWTH SLOWS DOWN IN MONTREAL BUT INCREASES IN QUEBEC After leading the way over the past few years, the Internet penetration rate in Montreal slipped behind that of Canada in 2000.Still, at 46.6%, it remains respectable even if it is below the Canadian average (51.3%).Montreal is even further behind when compared with other CMAs, which posted an average rate of 55.2%.Last year Quebec Francophones were still behind Canadian Anglophones in terms of Internet connection.And among Canadian provinces, those east of Quebec are lagging behind those in the West.Yet Quebecers continue their mad rush to get online: last year, the growth rate was 33%, the highest of all the provinces.Still, the penetration rate in Quebec was only 44%, the lowest in Canada.Naysayers who predicted the decline of the Internet wave will have to revise their forecasts: last year, the increase in Internet use was unprecedented, with the biggest increase logged by home users: 40% against 29% in 1999.In fact, households go online more frequently and spend more time on the Net than ever before.The vast majority use the Internet for email and surfing.Lastly, more affluent and better-educated households are most likely to use the Internet.Internet penetration rate %\tRegular users, regardless of location of use Montreal Canada Toronto Vancouver Calgary Ottawa Source: Statistics Canada 14 QUALITY OF LIFE ENVIRONNMENT AIR QUALITY: UNPARALLELED IN 20 YEARS For the first time in 20 years, there was not a single smog episode during summer 2000 on the island of Montreal, thanks to moderate temperatures and rainy weather.As well, sampling stations recorded a generalized average drop of some 15% in ground ozone concentrations compared with 1999.Without claiming the start of a new trend, this excellent result shows a break from the five-year profile during which the exceedance frequency of the one-hour ozone standard continued to rise.Judging by the recent heat wave, it does not appear that Mother Nature will be as kind this year.And in this new millennium, humans have hardly been any kinder to their environment.Indeed, it should be remembered that the Montreal Urban Community includes, among others, oil refineries, petrochemical plants, paper and paperboard manufacturers, cement mixers, quarries and incinerators, not to mention the 700,000 light vehicles registered on the territory and the billion litres of gas sold each year in service stations.Based on our information, metropolitan Montreal\u2019s efforts to stem the deterioration of the environment have not been enough to justify a sustained and significant decrease in pollution.Exceedance frequncy of the one-hour ozone standard in Montreal (MUC) ¦¦¦¦ Average of MUC stations 2 per.Mov Avg.(Average of MUC stations) Source: MUC, Environment department EDUCATION GRADUATION RATE: MONTREAL SLIPS While last year was not especially good in terms of the number of high school graduates in Quebec, it was a particularly bad year for the Montreal area, where the percentage of high school graduates dropped to 65.4%\u2014the worst year since we have been tracking this statistic.Although the results were not as bleak for Laval and Montérégie, they too have slipped.Within the Montreal metropolitan area, results varied widely.For example, the Montreal English school board posted a graduation rate of 76.5% while the Montreal rate was 57.9%.At 83.4%, the best results were recorded by Riverside, in Montérégie.Typically, girls succeeded better than boys.While regional statistics must be interpreted with due care, the regions of Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, Capitale-Nationale, Bas Saint-Laurent, Chaudière-Appalaches and Estrie generally rate highest year in, year out.At the other end of the spectrum, Outaouais and Nord-du-Québec rate the worst.In light of these less than stellar statistics, a comparison with other countries may well make us feel better.Indeed, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) reveals that in 1998 the high-school graduation rate* in Quebec was 81%, or slightly above the average (79%) observed for all OECD nations.The corresponding rate for France was 87%, Germany 93%, and New-Zealand 97%.Graduation rate High school leaving diploma 1990-1997 = 1992-1999 ¦¦¦ IIHiiiiIdi II uTiil II 11 1989-1996 1991-1998 1993-2000 Source: Ministère de l'Éducation (Quebec) Note: Graduation rates are calculated over a 7-year period 15 PUBLIC SECURITY MONTREAL: VIOLENT CRIMES UP BUT PROPERTY CRIMES DOWN As has been the case for the past four to five years, the number of violent crimes rose in Montreal last year even as property crimes decreased.This trend was echoed in Quebec overall but not always across Canada, where violent crimes increased for the first time last year after declining for the past seven years.Contrary to preconceived notions, Montreal is far from being the crime capital of Canada.In 2000, the total number of Criminal Code infractions in our city amounted to 7,234 per 100,000 residents, far behind Regina, Saskatchewan, the province with the most criminal offences next to the Canadian territories.And after Newfoundland, Quebec recorded the lowest number of crimes per resident.For a city of its size, Toronto continues to have a very low crime rate, especially in terms of property crimes.However, Vancouver is not far behind Regina both in terms of violent and property crimes.Unlike the situation in other industrialized nations such as France, where safety concerns are growing, crime in Canada and in the United States is declining.What seems to be bucking the trend, Crime rate (2000) Violent crimes ¦ Property crimes: Source: Statistics Canada (Juristat) however, is the steady increase in drug-related offences since 1994, which last year amounted to 9% and of which 8% was for possession of cocaine.It should be noted though that three quarters of these infractions involved possession of marijuana.PUBLIC HEALTH NO IMPROVEMENT IN QUEBEC ERS Despite a few individual improvements, the situation in Quebec hospital emergency rooms has not made progress in the past year.This is the picture painted by statistics released by the Ministère de la Santé et Services sociaux du Québec.And nor has the media painted a rosy picture of some Montreal hospitals.With respect to the average stay on stretchers in emergency rooms, there has been an improvement in Laval hospitals but a marked deterioration in Montérégie.In these two cases, just as in Central Montreal, the average stay was still higher than the average in Quebec hospitals.A look at the number of patients who spent 48 hours and more on stretchers shows that the situation has deteriorated overall except in Laval, where it has improved slightly.In all cases, except Quebec City, the standard set by the health and social services department whereby no more than 2% of patients should spend more than 48 hours on stretchers is far from being respected.Lastly, ER stays have steadily increased since 1995-1996.Stays on stretchers in emregency rooms 91-92 92-93 94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 1-99 99-00 00-01 Central Montreal Laval Quebec City Montérégie Quebec* ¦ ¦ Source: Ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux du Québec MONTREAL LIFE EXPECTANCY INCREASES 16 As it did for Quebec as a whole, life expectancy in Montreal/Laval increased between 1997 and 1998: for men, to 75.6 years and for women, to 81.7 years.Within the group of territories we are tracking, metropolitan Montreal ranked in the middle.While a correlation exists between gender and life expectancy, at 7.6 years, France has the widest gap in Europe.The corresponding figure for the United Kingdom is only 4.9 years.In Quebec, the gap is six years, or slightly higher than the 5.4 years for Canada as a whole.Over the years, life expectancy has continued to increase, both for men and women and, in 1998, the gap once again narrowed between the two sexes.In Canada, it was 7.1 years in 1981 but only 5.5 years in 1998.Among the provinces, the greatest variation is found in New Brunswick (6.3) and the smallest in Prince Edward Island (4.9).While on the upside life expectancy is rising, the flipside is a steady increase in the number of deaths as the population expands and ages.Life expectancy (1998) Sources: Statistics Canada, Institut de la statistique du Québec, INED (Paris), National Centre for Health Statistics (U.S.) R R R cq cd R R rwrrm Men gga Women sas INFANT MORTALITY RATE IN MONTREAL CLOSER TO US THAN JAPAN At 5.8 deaths of infants less than 1 year old per 1,000 live births in 1998, the infant mortality rate in Montreal/Laval is closer to the American rate (7) than to Japan\u2019s (3.6).The same holds true for Quebec (5.6).While you would think that this situation is to be expected, given similar medical conditions in North America, the rate in British Colombia (4.2) has been remarkably low in the past few years.All rates in our chart have dropped except in Quebec, where it is the same as in 1997.No change was observed in the relative positions of the geographical areas between 1997 and 1998.Unlike life expectancy, which has been increasing steadily for the past 20 years in industrialized countries, the infant mortality picture is somewhat different.In Montreal, for example, the rate has been erratic for some time: 4 per 1,000 in 1996, up to 6 in 1997, and then down to 5.8 in 1998.As well, the rate has also not been steady in France, Norway and Japan for some time.In Canada, the greatest number of infant deaths (18.5) was recorded in the Northwest Territories.However, this is also where the most progress has been made, when we consider that 92.9 deaths per 1,000 live births were recorded in the region between 1961 and 1965.Although the gap has narrowed, regional disparities in Canada have not been eliminated.Infant mortality rate (1998) I flgg Death of infants under one year old per 1,000 live births * cf